Schneier on Security

Clive Robinson • February 12, 2018 10:01 AM

@ Bruce, ALL,

One presumes the Olympics network is sufficiently protected against the more pedestrian DDoS attacks and the like, but who knows?

WiFi is WiFi, and as we know so many people like journalists want to use it to post stories and the like, the username and password get written up on white boards and postit notes in press centers, that TV journalists end up with them in camera for all the world to see.

The Olympics is a spectacular of “Peace and co-operation” that is supposed to bring “Goodwill to all men”. But every politico worth a bribe will use it for political reasons, likewise other people of even lesser goodwill want to use it for their own political reasons…

Thus you have a tension between making the spectacular good for the competitors and those who watch and those of alternative intent.

It’s difficult to be both open and closed at the same time.

Unfortunatly we also know that those of real malintent such as the NSA and CIA amongst many others will be worming their way into the Host Nations infrestructure any which way they can regardless of consequences (Greek Olympics being just the most obvious).

Whilst I have no doubt uncle tom cobbly and all SigInt and IC entities will be trying it on atribution is as always a major problem.

Lets be honest here, we know the CIA and NSA were upto their noses in the Greek Olympics. We also know the NSA have the tools to defeate 99.99…% of security practitioners that are not Gov entities. We also know the CIA has tools that can impersonate other cyber-attacks thus cause major misatribution to their benifit.

From what is currently happening in the world we know the CIA atleast if not the NSA would love to have the Russian’s pointing at North Korea and the other way around. We also know they would love to create friction with China as well…

Oh and we know that there are groups of South Korean’s that hate the North in a way that few westerners can realy understand.

There is also good reason to believe that they have “assisted the CIA” in various false flag ops to raise political tensions between the North and South.

Perhaps it’s time we took a couple of steps back from the atribution game. Because the Internet does not alow for reliable atribution to be possible.

The SigInt and IC entities know this full well and realy rely on it to do their “dirty tricks”.

Thus untill some real reliable and most importantly verifiable HumInt comes through, it’s all hearsay and not in any way shape or form evidence. Thus do not fall into the trap of buying into the atribution nonsense, learn to think independently and not be lead around by the nose like bulls to the slaughter by people reliant on US tax Dollars and secretive arrangements with the SigInt and IC entities or politico’s on the make…

Clive Robinson • February 13, 2018 1:05 PM

@ (required),

Sure it does. You just have to wait until you get vetted information instead of relying on conjecture.

No it does not, it’s a technical not pay grade or political issue. Vetting has nothing to do with it just an education at a good academic institution suffices.

If you think about it, the only thing you can actually verify directly is what is coming in on the network cable at the hole in the wall at your point of measurment. After that “it’s all conjecture” plain and simple, no pay grade issues are needed to see that.

Whilst their are techniques like Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) that can produce echos from changes in a transmission lines performance such as impedence change they are by no means perfect due to measurment sensitivity and the degree of mismatch within the line.

Also how would you tell from “looking in the cable” if what you do see is a ISO OSI layer one or less “line conditioning / amplifier unit”, an “In-line Tap/Tee” or something more sophisticated? If you can not answer that question acurately your knowledge is not sufficient to determine very much when it comes to what actually goes on, which makes your comment “unqualified” as well as “conjecture”.

It’s funny but the old time security people from the 1980’s and earlier understood this stuff without comment and understood the limitations of what was and was not possible, likewise what constituted evidence and what did not. You can actually find some of it online including the old standards (@Nick P occasional puts up compendiums of such information). There is also a couple of indirect refrences to it in a book you should have read,

“The Cuckoo’s Egg: Tracking a Spy Through the Maze of Computer Espionage”, 1989, by Clifford Stoll

Cliff assumed his readers would know exactly what he was talking about in certain areas thus did not clutter the dialogue up with it. I guess Cliff like many of us did not realise just how much things would get dummed down in the next three decades.

Sorry to be as blunt about it as this but there are people who know the reality of these things and those who don’t and I’ve been over it a couple of times previously on this blog in the past so you can look back and catch up, or go read a post graduate book or three on the subject.

Also on the “Political Front” as I have pointed out on a number of occasions in the past, I realy do not care who did it because in most cases they are all as bad as each other no matter what flag they salute or nod to, it’s just more of the same old “Great Game”.

That’s not getting into bed with Vlad, or Kim or bring paronoid etc, it’s just knowing that most of the related comment is political blustering from those who have an agenda that I’ve certainly no interest in as it lacks any credibility. They are also quite silly and like most “sound bites” have less than zero contact with reality, aimed at those who can not or do not wish to think critically. Which I believe is sometimes refered to as “sheepol” manipulating the “sheeple” (see the Urban dictionary).

However what I do care about is consequences of such inanity, as they are actualy important. Especially if some idiot decieds the kinetic option is the way to go. That is when political inanity and rehetoric boil over into military action and then unfortunatly escalates when the antagonists are at similar levels (hence the idea of proxie wars).

However our knowledge of human nature tells us that as dire as MAD might be there is always going to be atleast one idiot who thinks they have a plan around it, and if they get into the required position will often “go for it”.

Currently the US pushed by it’s War Hawks and MIC want another excuse for a war somewhere, as the war on terror is going stale as that on drugs did earlier. Infact some respected US commentators have indicated it’s more than half a decade overdue for the US to go and beat up on some significantly lesser country as an example to others to toe the US line. The US are also the ones “banging the drums” about going kinetic and are overly fond of sending in the drones to commit acts of war, as any US MSM rag should have got over to the majority by now.

As people are starting to finally wake up to, the world was talked into the invasion of Iraq by lies very clearly “cooked up” by cliques around US President G.W.Bush and UK Prime Minister A.Blair. They chose to fabricate evidence rather than use available and verifiable evidence, their excuse has always been to blaim others or not comment. Yet the actual evidence shows them to have either lied over and over and over, or be seriously deranged. Either way there is little indication that things have changed in that respect in either the US or UK.

It’s fairly clear to many that the US has and still does try to provoke North Korea into military action and a little thinking will show that another proxie war there will bring not just Russia but China into the conflict as both regard North Korea as a buffer nation to their own territories.

Again if you look back on this blog I’ve been pointing out where the US are next most likely to cause problems and why long before others do. It gives me no great satisfaction to be effectively right. You don’t need a clearance or enhanced “pay grade” to see the evidence and work out what is likely to be true and false from it.

The US political structure has had it’s nose put out of joint quite badly recently over both North Korea and Iran, the rest of the world is chosing to increasingly ignore the US and marginalize it’s opinions and rhetoric. As has been observed of tigers they become dangerous as they become toothless. Unfortunatly what applies to wild animals can as easily apply to Nation States as history has shown often. In essence they don’t want to lose power or primacy, and as history shows they often do not go gracefully.

By population alone the US is well down on the Nations listings, and as the EU is becoming as Federal as the US then that pushes the US down further. Technically, Educationaly and Health care wise the US is again down the rankings. But the US has a more insidious problem, US lifestyles are way way above the norm even in recession, and the US is running out of cheap resourses to support those life styles. History shows us that politicians do not fare well when living standards drop and that leads to political instability which as history shows again frequently leads to armed conflict and the considerable harm that gets written off as “Collateral Damage”. Most other nations are tired of having their citizens and infrastructure viewed that way by the US which also accounts for their increasing distrust, a view that is not helped by US Corporate behaviour and the chicanery that came out over the Obama Trade Talks, that eventualy stopped them.

As I’ve pointed out in the past the US IC/SigInt entities managed to dodge a bullet in Dec 14 at Doha, but that is likely to change. Much of the US electronic intel is possible due only to the “All roads lead to Rome” current construction of the Internet having the center of the web in the US and the Five-Eyes stradeling communications “choke points”. Thus giving them a significant technical advantage.

For various reasons not all political, things were begining to change all be it slowely and that technical edge becoming more expensive to maintain. But the Ed Snowden and other revelations came along in Jun 13 and later speeded those changes up. Worse the behaviour of the US tech corps with the NSA comming out into the open has made it political in a way few in the US understand. Hence the changes are happening yet faster still and the technical advantages are starting to ebb for other reasons as well as a result.

Whilst there is not as such a boycot on US goods and services, buying from non US sources is on the rise further damaging the US economy. Oh and US Corps are increasingly finding themselves in legal cross hairs with regards avoided profits, questionable business practices and what boil down to human rights such as privacy. And that’s all before the US military war hawks do stupid things in South Korea, Japan and other parts of the world such as the old Communist block. That little “golf course” incident ended up hurting the South Korean economy enough to cause not just international news, but is also starting to cause increasingly more South Korean’s to see the US, not the North or China as the enemy who will make them “Collateral Damage” or “Ash City” under a mushroom cloud or ten.

As has been pointed out in the past, the US does not have enough citizens to conscript to win a conventional war in the Korean Peninsula. Which is why back in the 1950’s the US Commander in the Field after directly or indirectly killing a third of the population, and still loosing demanded the use of nuclear weapons, which the US politicions of the time declined and the US effectively lost any chance of winning even a pyric victory.

The Korean’s on both sides of the DMZ get taught this as part of their education, unlike the US, so it’s something they think about a lot more. Which is why they realise that with both Russia and China having not just nuclear capability but effective delivery mechanisms the nuclear option that they think Donald Trump is seriously considering will not work either, the US can not win a war in the Korean Peninsula, plain and simple, all they can do is create trouble. The fact that the North has a delivery mechanism and nukes developing, they also realise is the behaviour of a “rational actor” in the face of an otherwise irrational actor in the US. The same thinking is happening in Japan and Taiwan as they realise they are on the US “Ash City” list as well.

Try asking South Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese security experts who they think has most to gain from what is going on in the Olympics and you will get a view that might supprise you, as you will find fingers increasingly pointing across the Pacific…

Whether the US want’s it or not “US Isolationism” is coming back, rather more from without than within, and a fall in citizen status will happen as a result, we have already seen this and it’s destabilising political result. The chances are good that this will continue for some time, thus it’s become clear that this is causing concern in the US Political hierarchy and it’s kind of hanging in the balance waiting for the mid-terms. As with all the House of Representative and a third of the Senate seats up for grabs in nine months neither side are apparently ready to decide on what to do about the “third way” currently.

Finally you also need to consider that the appaling conditions in various countries that come about from sanctions. But like the carpet bombing that started in WWII such behaviour does not in general cause the effected nation to become demoralised, or actually blaim their government. In fact the opposite is more likely, causing a strengthaning of resolve. It’s also been indicated as one of the causes of terrorism, likewise international crime including drugs and human slavery.

A study of recent history shows that the US not only uses sanctions as a method of oppression, it quite deliberatly fosters them. In the case of Iraq, Iran and Korea it can be seen that the US quite deliberatly renages on it’s negotiated agreements. Which is why they are now being excluded from talks by other nations…

Hence it gave Russia the opportunity to make fun of both the US and Canada less than a month ago,

http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-war-will-cause-catastrophe-russia-warns-us-ahead-vancouver-talks-781700

@ Dan H,

Clive is more than a little paranoid and thinks Putin, Kim, China, Iran are the good guys trying to slay the evil USA.

No I’m not, and stop trying to push words into my mouth I never said, I have a low regard not just for their political leaders but quite obviously those of the UK and US as well.

You realy are not very good at putting words in peoples mouths, your list is easily seen not as parody or satire but just silly nonsense. And as has been seen in the past you hurt your own reputation a lot more than those you try to target with such sillyness.

It’s a shame realy because occasionally you do make worthwhile and interesting comments. But at the end of the day ‘It’s your behaviour choice, your reputation loss’.

@ Nostradumbass,

The CIA and the NSA have different missions. It’s separate for a reason.

Yes they are but as in many things in life their objectives can and do coincide more often than you would at first think. In part because they have a common paymaster and thus commander.

However, you mention equivocation whilst actually using it,

Clive not only equivocated them he implied their false flag here was more plausible than anything else.

I mentioned that they had the tools, they had previously done similar and that currently their viewpoints were similar.

If you disagree with that feel free to say why, but you might find it difficult to do.

As for saying they are more plausable, well as I said they have the tools etc thus are more than capable technically.

I’ve also pointed out that they both have a history with regards the Korean Peninsula and have actively involved themselves not just with South Korean military and IC but other groups as well.

But I also pointed out there were other IC’s in fact many via my statment of,

Whilst I have no doubt uncle tom cobbly and all SigInt and IC entities will be trying it on atribution is as always a major problem.

Importantly was the point of

atribution is as always a major problem.

It should have made clear that I was making a point about the difficulty of attribution not ascribing it to any entity. That is if we just judge by known capabilities the US IC is most probable in fact it would be easy for them to do so, but does it make them guilty?

I would have thought my closing point of,

Perhaps it’s time we took a couple of steps back from the atribution game. Because the Internet does not alow for reliable atribution to be possible.

Would have made it clear that not only do we not have sufficient evidence to conclude the “who”, what we do have circumstantial evidence wise points where most people would not like it to.

I was kind of hoping it had got the point across that it’s time to step back from the attribution game. Not only is it technically not possible to do with any certainty, it lacks any possability of being evidence in the sense that more than a thousand years of jurisprudence has shown is the only way acceptable to our society.

@ All,

If anyone wants to argue the technical merits of my viewpoint fine I’m happy to go through them from the laws of physics upwards if you want.

As for the points I said about the NSA and CIA they are as far as we can tell on the evidence available factual. If you have other evidence bring it forward I would not be the only person interested in seeing/reviewing it.

As for the foreign policy and economics of what has been happening this century, these things are not hard science, and people take differing views. After all some think so highly of economists and politicians they actually pay for their oppinions.

Personaly I tend to view them in a less than favourable light at the best of times, as I suspect most longterm readers already know. Likewise my “political ideology” when I can be bothered with it is conservative with a small “c” in some things, socialist with a small “s” in other things. Thus I see good reason for there to be a public purse to pay for infrastructure, education, health and similar because they effect everybody, rich or poor, insular or cosmopolitan, hawk or dove, as they say “a rising tide lifts all boats”. Likewise I see good reason for markets but real ones not faux, and I can see good reason for appropriate regulation. As far as I’m aware none of these are particularly controversial where I live or in many other Western Nations.

As for the basis of political systems and political regimes, yes I will point out what I disagree with and highlight issues. But not “party politics” because the “My Country Right or Wrong” attitude is just as fascile when used in politics, religion, sport or other asspects of societal living it’s in effect “Brut tribalism” writ large. That can and frequently is exploited by authotitarians and overly eager authoratarian followers for the largess and badge of belonging.

I think that if something offends a persons morals or ethics, then they should be objective about it not partisan. Importantly the ability to present and argue it not just objectively but coherently is what engages others and cause opinion to change.

If you think that I’m wrong on this you are open to try coherent and objective reasoning. Presenting factual evidence is always helpful, but I also realise that facts can and often are clinical if not cold and subject to interpretation. Long term readers will have seen me say that there is always one more point of view which is the real one that nobody actually sees.

Clive Robinson • February 13, 2018 9:22 PM

@ echo,

I’m guessing you remember the 2012 London Olympics with the anti-aircraft missiles getting schedualed to be put on the roof of a private resedential block in East London, oh and G4S failures by the dozen resulting in the British Army being called in to make up for the G4S failings (whilst G4S were also fleecing the UK tax payer over “ankle bracelet” home offender managment and abusing people with disabilities)?

It’s just that your comment above, especialy the last paragraph, the Olympics and this article from today coincide, and I think you and possibly @AlanS might like it,

https://www.opendemocracy.net/shinealight/kiri-kankhwende/uk-outsourcing-alan-white-serco-G4S

I suspect other readers might be appaled by what it says about certain asspects of how things don’t work when run without proper safe guards, communications, audit and organisational memory.

Oh and for those who did attend London 2012 and thanked the UK armed forces for all they did, I thank you. If you knew the background to it you would be even more impressed. Esspecialy when you know that many of them stayed not in buildings but in camp beds tucked out of sight at security points and behind event and exhibition stands. They were an example of what can happen when those above are as committed and focused on the task as those who carry it out.