Ransomware Profitability
Analyzing cryptocurrency data, a research group has estimated a lower-bound on 2020 ransomware revenue: $350 million, four times more than in 2019.
Based on the company’s data, among last year’s top earners, there were groups like Ryuk, Maze (now-defunct), Doppelpaymer, Netwalker (disrupted by authorities), Conti, and REvil (aka Sodinokibi).
Ransomware is now an established worldwide business.
Slashdot thread.
Clive Robinson • February 10, 2021 11:08 AM
@ Bruce,
I’ll be honest and say, I’m surprised it’s only “$350 million” that’s still tiny compared to say “Payment Fraud” (Credit/Debit card etc) which was estimated to be last year about 32.5 billion, but as that was increasing due to COVID might be higher when all the figures are in.
The fact that this was just crypto currency payment makes an interesting side issue.
As crypto-coins are deliberately limited in the number that can be mined/minted as crime –that uses them as a form of anonymity– rises supply will become more limited in the face of demand.
So apart from the fact that a good case could be made that those who mine and exchange cryptocoins are “living on criminal proceeds”, the basic law of supply and demand would push the price up so the investors would also be likewise living on criminal proceeds…
But the more interesting thing is that as the demand rises the likes of investors hording cryptocoins further reduces supply and you start heading for a “Black Tulip Bulb Market”
That is the demand creates a percentage increase in demand by speculators which is a basic exponential rise.
However as the supply of coin starts to limit a secondary effct of resorce restriction applies.
Thus you end up with a restricted resource population rise effect which is another exponential curve but this time to a limit (see logistic, sigmoid curve or more correctly) a smoothed response to a Hammarad Step function.
But at some point above y=0.5 which is the point of fastest rise investors will start to want to get their money out of what is now a hot “potato game” which will cause an exponential decay that is in effect a run on the investment…
Thus you in effect get an inverse step function that is again smoothed.
This “boom and crash” cycle will at some point start again as long as crime carries on using crypto coin for it’s anonymity. What would otherwise appear to be a smoothed irregular squarewave will actually have a multiplication or lift factor, which will be another much slower exponential rise as long as the underlying demand of crime persists.
So,
1, Crime demand.
2, Speculative investment.
Will cause a chaotic oscillation effect which as long as the crypto coin resource remains of finite size will not stop.
But if you introduce a second or more cryptocoin system the problem will still tend to converge on the first cryptocoin system due to investors.
Some investors will be wise enough to get their coins out of the primary system just before it starts to enter the hot potato / run phase, and thus start pushing up another coin system. Which as it rises will attract across other investors…
You thus end up with two or more loosly locked chaotic oscillators which will behave in as an unpredictable way as a those cute jointed pendulums.
Such chsotic behaviour attracts power investors who will then try to manipulate the market.
This could give rise to a new form of High Frequency Trading and as a consequence spread out the instability into the macro markets…
There is of course another way to partianly limir this which is the old,
“Refuse to pay ransom”
Thus I suspect new legislation will come along…
Interesting times for those young enough not to care how much their rump gets exposed as they fly about.